Population Forecasts

Understanding changes in population is an important aspect of forward planning for any organisation providing public services and serving local communities.

These 2023 based interim population forecasts look forward ten years to 2033 to show how the population in the borough is forecast to change based on an underlying set of assumptions.

• The population is forecast to increase by 8% (28,500) over the next ten years to 393,500 in 2033. The greatest increase is forecast in the number of older people.
• The number of children aged 0-15 is forecast to decrease by 2% (1,200) between 2023 and 2033, this compares with an increase of 7% (4,200) over the previous ten years.
• The number of people aged 16-64 is forecast to increase at a similar rate (6% (12,400)) as the previous ten years (7% (14,300)).
• The increase in the number of people aged 65+ (22% (17,300)) is slightly higher than the growth over the previous decade (20% (13,100)). The number of people aged 85+ is forecast to increase by 50% (5,200) from 10,400 in 2023 to 15,600 in 2033. This is a large increase and is double the rate of increase seen in the previous decade.

The presentation below shows the changes and possible implications in more detail and includes information on the underlying assumptions made.

Forecasts are inherently uncertain, the forecast population will differ from actual future population change.

The forecasts are interim as several of the underlying assumptions (including fertility and numbers of new dwellings) are particularly uncertain at this point in time.

New demographic information is due to be published by the Office for National Statistics in 2025 which will enable the forecasts to be updated.