State of the Borough narrative

365,061 people lived in Cheshire West according to the mid-2023 population estimates, with just over a quarter living in rural areas. 17.2% of residents are 0-15 years old; 21.6% are over 65; and 61.2% are between 16 and 64 years old. This is an older population than the England average.

The population is forecast to increase by 8% by 2033, with the greatest increase expected in those aged 65 or over.

According to the 2021 Census around 8.8% of local residents were from Black and Minority Ethnic backgrounds, an increase on the 5.5% reported in 2011 but far lower than the 26.5% England average. Polish remains by far the most frequently spoken non-English language.

The COVID-19 pandemic began to impact on the UK from the start of 2020, with a national lockdown declared at the end of March. Due to the differences in the time taken to collate and report the various data within the State of the Borough, the impact of the pandemic shows differently in different data sets. The Department for Education continues to advise caution in how educational attainment is compared over this period.

Data shows that the borough ‘infant mortality rate’ is similar to the national average but that the percentage of ‘low birthweight term babies’ is better.

The proportion of local children who are obese is similar to the national average at reception age (9.7% compared to 9.6%) but better at year 6 (20.2% compared to 22.1%). Hospital admissions caused by unintentional or deliberate injuries are both higher (worse) in the borough than the England average.

Hospital admissions for mental health conditions in people under 18s has fallen significantly and is now better than the national average. Self-harm in those aged 10-24 years remains above the national average but has fallen significantly following a sharp increase in 2021/22 the reasons for which are not clear. Mental health and self-harm

admissions are both more prevalent for females, locally and nationally. Under 18s hospital admissions for alcohol-specific conditions is similar to the national average but admissions for substance misuse in 15-24 year olds is worse.

The rate of children in need has been increasing since 2020 and is now above the England average. The rate of children and young people on a child protection plan is similar to the England average. A higher rate of children and young people are living in care than elsewhere in the country.

Overall absence from school increased significantly in 2022, both locally and nationally. It reduced slightly in 2023, to 7.2% locally and 7.4% nationally, but both figures remain well above historic levels. The local absence rate is slightly lower than the England average for special schools and primary age, but higher at secondary (9.2% in comparison to 9.0%). The percentage of schools rated as good or outstanding by OFSTED is 90.6% for primary against an England average of 91.6% and for secondary schools is 85% compared to an England average of 84.1%. Changes to the inspection framework for schools in Summer 2024 mean that single word judgements for the overall effectiveness of schools have now been removed to be replaced by School report cards from Sept 2025. Existing grades, based on inspections that took place prior to 1st Sept 2024, will remain in place until a school's next inspection.

The percentage of children achieving a good level of development in the early years foundation stage declined between 2019 and 2022, and despite improvement in 2023, remains below pre-pandemic levels. GCSE attainment 8 scores increased in 2020 and 2021 but declined in 2022 and 2023. The number of people starting further education has been falling since 2017, when the figure was over 35,000. It reached a low of 17,181 in 2021 but by 2023 had grown to 20,477.

Whilst Cheshire West is an affluent borough the overall picture masks stark gaps between areas of prosperity and deprivation. The median local household income is £37,800 per year but 20.0% of local households have an annual income of less than £22,700 compared to 19.8% nationally. Some 26,731 local people live in neighbourhoods ranked in the most deprived 10% in England and the number of local children in low-income families has increased from 13.3% in 2020/21, to 17.3% or 10,796 children in 2022/23. 11.4% of Cheshire West and Chester households live in fuel poverty.

More recent information shows that visits to foodbanks have fallen from a high of 26,012 in 2022/23 to 23,126 in 2023/4. The percentage of local pupils known to be eligible for free school meals continues to increase steadily, reaching 19.8% in 2024 whilst model based unemployment has fallen to 2.1% against an England average of 3.8%.

Average attainment 8 scores at GCSE show that the attainment of non-disadvantaged pupils have dropped both locally and nationally, with the local attainment of 49.8 remaining slightly below the England average of 50.3. The attainment of disadvantaged pupils has also fallen both nationally and locally, with local disadvantaged pupils achieving an average score of 31.3 compared to 35.1 nationally.

The borough’s inequality in life expectancy at birth has reduced from 10.6 to 9.8 years for men and from 8.8 to 7.8 years for women.

Life expectancy in the borough remains at 83.5 years for women (better than the national average of 83.1) and at 79.4 years for men (similar to the national average of 79.1%). Preventable mortality in those aged under 75 years is significantly better than the England average. Healthy life expectancy rates across the borough's male and female populations have been declining but remains similar to England. Around 21,284 local people over 65 live alone.

68.3% of local adults are reportedly overweight in comparison to 64.0% nationally. Local people are in line with England for most other healthy behaviours, except admission episodes for alcohol related conditions which are below the national average and percentage physically active which is better than the national average. Fall related hospital admission rates for older people in Cheshire West and Chester are significantly worse than the England average.

The percentage of local people who report a high level of anxiety (25.4%), and a low happiness score (13%) are both increasing faster than nationally, but remain similar to the national average. 5.9% of our borough's adults report feeling lonely often or always, similar to the national rate of 6.8%. The borough's rate of hospital admissions for intentional self-harm is worse than the national average at 138.5 per 100,000 compared to 117.0.

The largest business sectors in Cheshire West in terms of the number of businesses are professional, scientific and technical (which has increased from 2,570 at last report to 2,620), construction (which has increased from 1,470 to 1515) and business admin and support (which has increased from 1,210 to 1,220). The sectors with the highest number of employees are health (which increased from 18,000 in 2020 to 20,000 in 2023), professional, scientific & technical (which increased from 17,000 to 18,000) and retail (which fell from 22,000 to 16,000).

The most recent 2023 figures show a further drop in business births (from 1,475 to 1,435) but also a further decrease in business deaths (from 1,650 to 1,405). The percentage of local businesses that survive two years locally has decreased slightly (from 71.2% to 68.9%) as have both the national and regional percentages. Local business survival rates are just above the North West but just below England. The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) in the borough is 6.0% 2021-2022, compared to 4.9% North West average and 4.0% UK average.

The local employment rate, which is collected by survey, fell to a low of 68.9% in 2023 but has since increased to 82.6%, better than both the England (75.7%) and the North West (73.0%). Model-based unemployment remains well below the national average, as do unemployment benefit claimant rates. Around a third of local people continue to work part-time. Whilst 36,704 people commute out of the borough for work (with Cheshire East the most popular destination), 37,364 commute into the borough (with Wirral the most popular source).

The number of visitors to the borough is growing year on year but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. After falling from 37.4million (2019) to 20.1m (2020), it has recovered to 29.2million in 2023. The number of staying visitors has recovered to 1.6million but day visitor numbers remain 8.2million lower than in 2019. Visitor economic impact has followed a similar trajectory and in 2023 stood at £2.26billion. Chester Zoo remains by far the most popular visitor attraction in the borough with 1.94million visitors in 2023 according to VisitBritain. Chester Cathedral is the second most popular attraction, followed by Delamere Forest and the Ice Cream Farm.

78% of Cheshire West and Chester premises have full fibre broadband availability compared to 67% for the UK. 1% of premises across both the borough and the UK are unable to receive at least 10Mbit/s broadband.

The numbers of people killed or seriously injured on Cheshire West and Chester’s roads remains lower than the national average. In comparison to the year ending March 2024 the number of recorded crimes has fallen by 9% locally and by 4% nationally.

The proportion of Cheshire West and Cheshire residents satisfied with the borough's highways is below the National Highways and Transport (NHT) survey average and has been declining.

Of the 165,231 homes and dwellings in Cheshire West, 30.3% are rented, 31.2% are owned with a mortgage or loan and 37.1% are owned outright. 46,889 local people live alone. Median house prices fell slightly again to £242,750 but remain more than seven times local annual earnings.

Engagement with libraries and museums which fell in 2020, has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels. Library visits have increased from 453,507 in 2020/21 to 1.6m in 2023/24. Engagement with archives grew to 2.4million during 2020 as their online offer was extended, and whilst it fell to 1.72million in 2023/24, it remains above pre-pandemic levels. Visits to Brio leisure facilities have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. 

Per capita carbon emissions for the borough in 2022 fell to 7.3 kco2. Whilst showing a 53.21% reduction since 2012, and a far faster reduction than nationally, local emissions remain above the national average. The largest proportion of local emissions has been attributable to industry use which is where the most significant part of reductions have been made. Across England as a whole, the greater part of emissions is accounted for by transport and household emissions.

60.3% of domestic properties in Cheshire West and Chester had an energy performance certificate (EPC) band C or above in 2023, compared to 59.0% for England. 56.4% of the borough's household waste was sent for reuse, recycling or composting in 2022/23, higher than the England average of 41.7%.

83% of local households own at least one car or van. The vehicle miles travelled per 100,000 people are significantly higher in Cheshire West and Chester than nationally. The impact of the pandemic and national lockdowns saw both local and national figures fall dramatically and whilst figures have increased each year since, the 687 miles travelled by local people in 2023 remains lower than it has been over the previous decade. The number of low emission vehicles owned locally increased to 1569 per 100,000 population but this remains below the national rate which is increasing faster than local numbers.