State of the Borough
State of the Borough narrative
This summary complements the State of the Borough data dashboard and highlights some of the key trends emerging in Cheshire West and Chester. All notes on the sources of data, definitions and so on are available on the dashboard.
Context
The borough of Cheshire West and Chester covers approximately 350 square miles and is the fourth largest unitary authority in the North West. The area is characterised by attractive countryside, varied landscapes and diverse settlements. This includes the historic City of Chester, industrial towns, market towns and rural hamlets. Around 361,694 people live in the borough, and over a quarter live in rural areas. The population is expected to increase by more than 10% by 2038, with the greatest increase expected in those aged 65 or above.
361,994 people lived in Cheshire West at the time of the 2021 census, with just over a quarter living in rural areas. 17.3% of residents are 0-15 years old; 21.5% are over 65; and 61.2% are between 16 and 64 years old. This is an older population than the England average.
The population is forecast to increase by more than 10% by 2038, with the greatest increase expected in those aged 65 or over.
According to the 2021 Census around 8.8% of local residents were from Black and Minority Ethnic backgrounds, an increase on the 5.5% reported in 2011 but far lower than the 26.5% England average. Polish remains by far the most frequently spoken non-English language.
The COVID-19 pandemic began to impact on the UK from the start of 2020, with a national lockdown declared at the end of March. Due to the differences in the time taken to collate and report the various data within the State of the Borough, the impact of the pandemic shows differently in different data sets. The Department for Education continues to advise caution in how educational attainment is compared over this period.
Borough Plan Missions
Data shows that the borough ‘infant mortality rate’ is similar to the national average but that the percentage of ‘low birthweight term babies’ is better.
The proportion of local children who are obese is similar to the national average at reception age (8.6% compared to 9.2%) but better at year 6 (19.8% compared to 22.6%). Hospital admissions for mental health conditions in people under 18s has fallen significantly and is now better than the national average. Self-harm in those aged 10-24 years remains above the national average but has fallen significantly following a sharp increase in 2021/22 the reasons for which are not clear. Mental health and self-harm admissions are both more prevalent for females, locally and nationally.
Under 18s hospital admissions for alcohol-specific conditions is similar to the national average but admissions for substance misuse in 15-24 year olds is worse.
Hospital admissions caused by unintentional or deliberate injuries are both higher (worse) in the borough than the England average. The rate of children in need has also been increasing since 2020 and is now similar to the England average. More children and young people are on a child protection plan or are living in care than elsewhere in the country.
Overall absence from school increased significantly in 2022, both locally and nationally. It reduced slightly in 2023, to 7.2% locally and 7.4% nationally, but both figures remain well above historic levels. The local absence rate is slightly lower than the England average for special schools and primary age, but higher at secondary (9.2% in comparison to 9.0%). The percentage of schools rated as good or outstanding by OFSTED has increased slightly for primary (89.1% against an England average of 91.5%) and remained stable for secondary schools (85% compared to an England average of 83.8%). The number of people starting further education has been falling since 2017, when the figure was over 35,000. It reached a low of 17,181 in 2021 but by 2023 had grown to 20,477.
Whilst Cheshire West is an affluent borough the overall picture masks stark gaps between areas of prosperity and deprivation. The median local household income is £35,100 per year but 21.8% of local households have an annual income of less than £21,900 compared to 21.5% nationally. Some 24,670 local people live in neighbourhoods ranked in the most deprived 10% in England and the number of local children in low-income families has increased from 13.3% in 2020/21, to 17.3% or 10,796 children in 2022/23. Local life expectancy is higher than the national average for both males and females. Nationally, both male and female life expectancy are reducing slightly and this is being mirrored in local male life expectancy, but local female life expectancy has risen slightly. The borough’s inequality in life expectancy at birth has reduced from 10.6 to 9.8 years for men and from 8.8 to 7.8 years for women.
More recent information shows that visits to foodbanks increased from 22,515 in 2020 and have remained high at 26,028 for 2022/23, the percentage of local pupils known to be eligible for free school meals increased from 13.3% in 2019 to 18.4% in 2022 and model based unemployment has fallen to 2.4% against an England average of 3.7%.
Average attainment 8 scores at GCSE show that the attainment of non-disadvantaged pupils have dropped both locally and nationally, with the local attainment of 49.8 now slightly below the England average of 50.3 (both falling to 52.8). The attainment of disadvantaged pupils has also dipped but local attainment, which has remained worse than that of disadvantaged pupils nationally over the past few years, has fallen faster meaning that gap has widened.
Life expectancy in the borough has increased to 83.5 years for women (better than the national average of 82.82) and fallen to 79.4 years for men (better than the national average of 78.9%). Around 21,284 local people over 65 live alone.
68.29% of local adults are reportedly obese in comparison to 63.95% nationally. Local people are in line with England for most other healthy behaviours, except local adults being less likely to smoke, with the exception of pregnant women who were more likely to be smoking at the time of delivery than the national average. The percentage of local people who report a high level of anxiety (25.4%), and a low happiness score (13%) are both increasing faster than nationally, but remain similar to the national average.
The largest business sectors in Cheshire West in terms of the number of businesses are professional, scientific and technical (which fell from 2,800 in 2020 to 2,570 in 2023, construction (which has increased from 1,425 to 1,470) and business admin and support (which has increased from 1,205 to 1,225 then fallen back to 1,210). The sectors with the highest number of employees are health (which increased from 18,000 in 2020 to 20,000 in 2023) retail (which fell from 22,000 to 18,000) and accommodation and food (which increased from 13,000 to 17,000). The most recent 2022 figures show a drop in business births (from 1,690 to 1,475) but also an increase in business deaths (from 1,725 to 1,650). The percentage of local businesses that survive two years locally has increased slightly (from 69.8% to 71.25%) as have both the national and regional percentages which are just below local levels. The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) in the borough from 1998-2021 (1.6%) is slightly below that of the North West (1.7%) and UK average (1.8%).
The local employment rate, which is collected by survey, fell to a low of 72.5% in 2022 but has since increased to 76.5%, better than both the England (76.0%) and the North West (73.8%). Model-based unemployment remains well below the national average, as do unemployment benefit claimant rates. Around a third of local people continue to work part-time. Whilst 36,704 people commute out of the borough for work (with Cheshire East the most popular destination), 37,364 commute into the borough (with Flintshire the most popular source).
The impact of COVID-19 and the national pandemic response can be clearly seen in the number of visitors to the borough. After falling from 37.4million (2019) to 20.1m (2020), it has recovered to 24.5m in 2021 and 28.7m in 2022. The economic impact increased has followed a similar trajectory and in 2022 stood at £1.99bn. Chester Zoo is historically by far the most popular visitor attraction in the borough but is not included in the most recent visitor figures released by VisitBritain. 2022 visitor figures show Delamere Forest as the most popular attraction, with the Ice Cream Farm in second place.
The numbers of people killed or seriously injured on Cheshire West’s roads has continued to fall and is lower than the national average. In comparison to the year ending June 2023 the number of recorded crimes has fallen by 3% locally whilst the national increase has been 2%.
Of the 163,876 homes and dwellings in Cheshire West, 30.3% are rented, 31.2% are owned with a mortgage or loan and 37.1% are owned outright. 46,889 local people live alone. Median house prices fell slightly from June 2021 to June 2022 but have since increased to £247,250. Local house prices remain more than seven times local annual earnings.
Engagement with libraries, museums and leisure facilities which fell in 2020 has started to recover but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Engagement with archives grew to 2.4million during 2020 as their online offer was extended and whilst it fell to 1.74million in 2022 this remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Per capita carbon emissions for the borough in 2020 fell to 9.7ktco2, with the largest proportion of overall emissions by far remaining attributable to industry use. Whilst showing a 32.17% reduction since 2011, local emissions remain more than double the national average. Across England as a whole, the greater part of emissions is accounted for by transport and household emissions.
83% of local households own at least one car or van. The impact of the pandemic and national lockdowns saw the vehicle miles travelled per 100,000 people falling from 732 miles in 2019 to 560 miles in 2020 – the first significant drop since Cheshire West and Chester was created. Whilst figures have since increased to 633 in 2021 and 680 in 2022 this remains lower than it has been over the last decade. The number of low emission vehicles owned locally increased to 1078 per 100,000 population but this remains below the national rate which is increasing faster than local numbers.
